COT Market Sentiment Analysis
This week’s COT report reveals 9 key market shifts shaping forex sentiment across major assets. With traders eyeing confluence signals between RSI divergence price action setups and candlestick confirmation with indicators, the tone remains cautious but opportunistic. The USD stays dominant, supported by improving fundamentals, while commodity currencies like AUD and NZD remain under pressure. Traders using a moving average and RSI combo forex approach can identify clearer entry signals as markets respond to shifting sentiment dynamics.
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – SLIGHTLY WEAK (3/5)
- CAD – SLIGHTLY WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – SLIGHTLY WEAK (3/5)
- JPY – SLIGHTLY WEAK (3/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD (DXY) – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – SLIGHTLY WEAK (3/5)
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold’s intraday outlook turns bearish, with a pivot point at 3974.00. Short positions below this level target 3915.00 and 3886.00, confirming downside potential. The RSI trend shows weakening momentum, aligning with a confluence trading strategy forex setup that suggests short-term selling pressure. Only a break above 3974.00 may trigger recovery toward 4000.00–4028.00. Gold traders should watch for candlestick confirmation with indicators before entering new positions.
SILVER
Silver maintains bullish momentum, rising to 47.73305 (+1.20%). The pair’s steady higher highs and firm RSI signal a robust price action with momentum indicators setup. As long as prices stay above 47.10 support, the bullish bias holds. A moving average and RSI combo forex confirmation supports continued upside toward 47.80 and beyond, contingent on sustained buying pressure and a softer USD outlook.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
DXY remains stable at 100.200, reflecting range-bound conditions. The index has gained 0.71% over five days, reaffirming its position above the psychological 100.00 level. RSI levels suggest neutral momentum, which could transition into renewed strength if key economic data surprises on the upside. A confluence trading strategy forex would favor buying dips while maintaining tight risk management as volatility persists.
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair extends its decline below the 1.3080 pivot, signaling a bearish RSI divergence price action setup. The downward targets remain 1.2980 and 1.2950, supported by persistent selling pressure. Unless the pair recovers above 1.3080, the candlestick confirmation with indicators continues to favor short trades. Market sentiment remains risk-averse, leaning toward USD strength.
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD trades near 0.6482, down 0.11%, amid persistent weakness. Despite periodic rebounds, momentum remains capped below 0.6500, indicating dominance by sellers. The RSI and moving averages show limited bullish energy, suggesting continuation of the bearish move. Using a moving average and RSI combo forex strategy helps filter false recoveries while focusing on valid trend signals.
NZDUSD
NZD/USD shows mild recovery, trading at 0.5647 (+0.08%), but overall sentiment remains fragile. Despite intraday gains, the broader trend leans bearish due to USD strength. The pair’s limited upside confirms a price action with momentum indicators pattern where rebound attempts lack conviction. Traders should monitor resistance at 0.5660–0.5670 for possible reversals.
EURUSD
EUR/USD remains under bearish control, trading below 1.1515 pivot with short-term targets at 1.1465 and 1.1445. RSI continues to weaken, validating a RSI divergence price action setup. If buyers reclaim 1.1515, a move toward 1.1540–1.1560 becomes possible. Until then, short trades remain favorable within a confluence trading strategy forex framework.
USDJPY
USD/JPY sustains bullish momentum, supported by RSI strength. Long positions above 153.30 aim for 153.85 and 154.10, confirming continued upward bias. The price action with momentum indicators supports trend continuation, making this pair attractive for momentum-based traders. A drop below 153.30, however, would flip sentiment toward short-term weakness.
USDCHF
USD/CHF shows intraday volatility, recovering after early losses. Despite a strong rebound, long-term sentiment remains bearish, consistent with the broader trend. RSI remains neutral, offering potential for candlestick confirmation with indicators to validate entry signals. Traders should remain cautious until a firm directional break develops.
USDCAD
USD/CAD continues its bullish advance, trading at 1.41258 (+0.16%). The stair-step rally confirms USD dominance, with RSI strength backing upward continuation. This reflects a clean confluence trading strategy forex pattern, where pullbacks toward support areas may offer renewed long opportunities aligned with the larger trend.
Final Thoughts
This week’s 9 key market shifts underline a crucial trading theme: USD resilience and mixed commodity trends. Traders should integrate RSI divergence price action setups and moving average and RSI combo forex strategies to identify high-probability entries. Combining candlestick confirmation with indicators provides stronger trade validation, while maintaining discipline through price action with momentum indicators ensures accurate timing and risk control.
The current market landscape favors technical confluence and patience—essential traits for capturing profitable swings in this evolving forex environment.