COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – WEAK (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (2/5)
- JPY – STRONG (2/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (3/5)
Market Overview
Traders are on alert ahead of today’s U.S. Core Retail Sales release — a potential catalyst for several of the 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals we’re tracking. This economic report is expected to heavily influence Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for September. A weaker-than-expected result would likely increase the probability of easing, putting pressure on the U.S. Dollar and boosting risk-sensitive assets. Volatility indicators in forex suggest that the hours following the release could see sharp moves across both commodities and major currency pairs.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold remains in a consolidation phase after recently pulling back from the EMA200. This controlled sideways movement was anticipated, as traders await clarity from the upcoming retail sales data. The overall bullish structure remains intact, but the next major move will depend on the U.S. Dollar’s reaction post-data. For those monitoring this 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals list, a forex breakout indicator could be valuable for timing an entry once direction is confirmed.
SILVER
Silver is consolidating on the EMA200, with the broader structure still bullish but short-term momentum turning softer. The MACD and RSI are hinting at increased selling pressure. This conflicting picture places Silver on our 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals list as a watch-and-wait candidate until a clean break of the current price structure provides a directional edge.
DXY
The U.S. Dollar Index is leaning bearish after being rejected at the EMA200, which served as a firm resistance point. The MACD briefly flashed bullish momentum but failed to follow through, while the RSI trends toward oversold territory. This suggests the possibility of a small bounce before resuming the downtrend. The retail sales data will be the primary driver, making DXY one of the most critical elements of the 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals.
GBPUSD
The Pound remains stable with potential for further buying, dependent on the U.S. Dollar’s performance. While no breakout has occurred yet, underlying structure favors the bulls. A confluence trading strategy could help confirm long entries once the U.S. data is digested.
AUDUSD
The Aussie is showing short-term bearish momentum in the MACD and RSI, but this is happening inside a broader bullish market structure. Patience is key here. A price action and indicator combo can help traders identify if the retail sales data sparks a reversal or a continuation higher.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi mirrors the Aussie’s current technical stance — short-term weakness in indicators but supported by an overall bullish framework. It remains part of our 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals as a potential reversal candidate if the dollar weakens further after today’s data.
EURUSD
EUR/USD is holding above the EMA200, suggesting underlying buying strength. The MACD shows mild selling volume, but the lack of significant price decline signals that demand is still present. The pair’s inclusion in the 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals is supported by its potential for an upside breakout on weak U.S. numbers.
USDJPY
The Yen is strengthening, pushing USD/JPY lower. While MACD and RSI show volatility and noise, the overall price action remains bearish. This is one of the 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals that could accelerate if U.S. data disappoints, as safe-haven flows into the Yen increase.
USDCAD
USD/CAD is attempting to rally despite a broader bearish trend. The MACD and RSI reflect short-term buying momentum, with the pair testing a key structural level. A break above resistance could shift bias to bullish, but confirmation is needed. It rounds out our 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals for this week.
Final Thoughts
Today’s U.S. Core Retail Sales release will be a defining factor for the 9 Key Forex & Commodity Signals outlined above. Whether using a forex breakout indicator, stochastic overbought oversold zones, or a confluence trading strategy, traders should prepare for heightened volatility. Aligning these tools with price action and indicator combo methods can help filter false signals and identify genuine breakout or reversal opportunities.
For more structured trade setups and analysis, explore: