COT Reports Analysis
Institutional positioning continues to support risk-on behavior across several pairs. Here’s this week’s COT sentiment snapshot — an essential macro filter when pairing with forex momentum indicators:
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (3/5)
- CAD – WEAK (3/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – WEAK (5/5)
- NZD – STRONG (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Market Overview: Geopolitics, Tariffs & Thin Liquidity
This week is driven by two macro headwinds: escalating Middle East conflict and the impending U.S. tariff deadlines.
Middle East Ceasefire Crisis
While a 60-day ceasefire is under negotiation, Israeli airstrikes continue across Gaza, and militant clashes in Syria underscore the region’s instability. Israel’s cross-border strikes — including deep incursions into Iran — and Iran-backed militia movements have kept risk sentiment fragile. These events often spark safe-haven demand, affecting GOLD, JPY, and CHF volatility — best read using forex momentum indicators like MACD, RSI, and EMA200.
Tariff Watch: July 9 Deadline Looms
The global trade landscape could shift significantly next week. With Trump’s 90-day grace period ending July 9, many countries may face steep reciprocal tariffs (10–50%). This has created volatility across USD pairs. For short-term setups, use indicator-based entry strategy models to confirm reactions post-announcement.
Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold continues to slide after failing to breach upper resistance. EMA200 now acts as resistance. MACD and RSI show strong bearish signals — a classic forex momentum indicator combo. If today’s light liquidity persists, we expect a slow grind lower, possibly forming a moving average crossover signal on the daily chart.
SILVER
Silver decoupled from Gold and broke above its high. The MACD shows selling volume increasing, but RSI nears oversold levels. This conflict may signal consolidation or a bounce, ideal for those using stochastic oscillator entry signals to fine-tune entries.
DXY
The Dollar rallied after beating NFP expectations (+195K vs. 131K forecast). MACD and RSI show bullish continuation. But unless it breaks above the EMA200, upside is limited. Watch for a pullback to confirm whether this rally is sustainable — use a Bollinger Bands forex entry to identify overextension.
GBPUSD
The Pound is consolidating after a sharp dip. MACD and RSI show sideways pressure. If momentum builds above range highs, a moving average crossover signal may trigger a reversal. Until then, this remains a wait-and-watch zone for indicator-based entry strategy traders.
AUDUSD
The Aussie remains in a tight range, bouncing from the EMA200. Both MACD and RSI are neutral, indicating more consolidation ahead. Use Bollinger Band squeezes and stochastic oscillator entry signals to spot a potential breakout setup.
NZDUSD
Kiwi holds strong at EMA200 but remains range-bound. MACD shows minimal movement, while RSI hints at renewed buying. We’ll wait for a range break, at which point forex momentum indicators will guide direction with stronger conviction.
EURUSD
Euro is confined to a mid-range channel. Momentum indicators show mild bullishness, though overbought signals in RSI may precede a pullback. If a moving average crossover signal confirms direction after a breakout, that’s your cue.
USDJPY
USD/JPY is climbing but faces heavy resistance at 145.196. MACD and RSI both favor bullish continuation, but caution is warranted. A failed breakout could reverse the trend. Use indicator-based entry strategy protocols to trade this with confirmation.
USDCHF
The Franc briefly tested the EMA200 before retreating. MACD is reversing into bearish territory. RSI remains flat. If momentum aligns, this could form a clean Bollinger Bands forex entry signal for further downside — especially if geopolitical tensions flare up.
USDCAD
USD/CAD is grinding lower. MACD signals renewed bearish momentum, and RSI flirts with overbought territory — a divergence worth watching. This is ideal for applying forex momentum indicators and shorting retracements using a structured entry strategy.
Final Thoughts
This week’s forex markets are heavily influenced by geopolitics and trade policy. Use tools like MACD, RSI, and EMA200 — your go-to forex momentum indicators — to filter noise and focus on high-probability setups. Whether it’s reacting to a moving average crossover signal, spotting breakouts with Bollinger Bands forex entry, or timing reversals via stochastic oscillator entry signals, your success hinges on using a disciplined indicator-based entry strategy. Visit: https://rs-fin.com/
