COT Reports Analysis
AUD – WEAK (5/5)
GBP – STRONG (3/5)
CAD – WEAK (3/5)
EUR – STRONG (5/5)
JPY – STRONG (5/5)
CHF – WEAK (5/5)
USD – WEAK (5/5)
NZD – STRONG (5/5)
GOLD – STRONG (4/5)
SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Market Analysis
GOLD
GOLD prices dropped significantly before the market closed last week. This was a direct reaction to the U.S. Core PCE Price Index ticking higher than expected on Friday (+0.2% vs. +0.1% forecast), which gives the Federal Reserve less reason to rush into rate cuts. The drop followed through on the overall market’s bearish technical expectations after the initial shift. Both the MACD and the RSI are now indicating increased bearish momentum and volume.
In the context of trade timing analysis, this drop serves as a key inflection point for evaluating entry point identification in forex, particularly for commodity-paired currencies. Traders using forex technical indicators for entry will find that GOLD’s support levels are critical to track this week.
SILVER
SILVER prices remain consolidated. This provides evidence that the current markets are trying to determine where the economy is heading. SILVER prices being stable while GOLD is falling might offer a different point of view, mainly that prices for GOLD were viewed as overpriced, prompting a sell-off to bring it to a more attractive level. The MACD is seeing growth in bearish volume; however, the RSI is still consolidated.
Using signal-based forex trading, we will hold off on a clear trade decision until further movement provides a stronger forex trend entry strategy.
DXY
The Dollar consolidated after its sharp rally on Friday, which was fueled by the rise in the core inflation reading. This week will be crucial, with a lot of U.S. data set to be released in a holiday-shortened schedule. Key events include Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and the main event, Thursday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data will help us navigate the markets in the coming months.
Technically, prices are finding increased chances for a sell continuation, with the MACD and the RSI showing rising volume and momentum to sell further. For those using trade timing analysis and forex technical indicators for entry, this presents an optimal setup to consider short positions if current support levels break.
GBPUSD
The Pound has been consolidating near its highs, failing to move in a specific market direction. Although the MACD is reporting an increase in bearish volume, the market’s muted reaction to this signal suggests underlying strength and the possibility of renewed bullish momentum. The RSI is also consolidating at the moment, after recently tapping oversold levels.
This combination supports a potential forex trend entry strategy if a breakout occurs. As part of your entry point identification in forex, GBPUSD could offer an attractive long setup.
AUDUSD
The Australian Dollar is currently finding increased bullish movement, with the MACD and the RSI reflecting the rise in momentum and volume for buying. This is further proven by how prices are muted on the downside despite the larger drop in the MACD. The EMA200 is also acting as support.
Traders looking for signal-based forex trading setups may monitor for a break above 0.65618 as a confirmation of a trend continuation. This aligns with ideal trade timing analysis conditions.
NZDUSD
Similar to the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi is finding increased buying momentum. The MACD is indicating increased buying volume, but the RSI is still very consolidated. While the bullish structures are still holding and the EMA200 is acting as strong support, the 0.60847 level must be broken through for a buy continuation.
This pair offers an ideal case for forex trend entry strategy based on price action and indicator confluence. Wait for confirmation before entry.
EURUSD
Euro prices are finding increased buying movement, with the MACD and the RSI showing increased chances for further buying to continue. The EMA200 is also nearing prices and is supporting the current movement.
Those utilizing forex technical indicators for entry can look to pair this data with trend confirmation for optimal trade timing analysis.
USDJPY
The Yen is currently finding increased consolidation on the EMA200. The MACD is seeing potential for increased selling volume while the RSI also reflects a rise in further bearish momentum. The market will be looking for more clues on the path of monetary policy when Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is set to speak this week on Tuesday. Currently, the overall price action maintains its bearish structure [for USD/JPY].
As part of entry point identification in forex, traders should monitor key supports around recent lows.
USDCHF
The Franc is gaining at a level that has not been seen for a very long time. In a historical moment that shows weakness and doubt in the U.S. Dollar, the USD/CHF pair has fallen to a low not seen since the 2015 SNB event, highlighting the Franc’s strength as a stable alternative to the Dollar. The MACD and the RSI are also finding further chances for a sell continuation [for USD/CHF].
This setup aligns with many signal-based forex trading methodologies, favoring trend-following strategies.
USDCAD
The market for the CAD had shifted to a complete sell-off [for USD/CAD], but it lost ground against the Dollar towards the end of last week’s trading session, meaning USD/CAD rose. We can see that prices were rejected at the shift structure, leading to a consolidation or a potential buying shift. Thus, while our overall bias is bearish, the MACD and the RSI are currently finding increased bearish momentum and volume.
From a trade timing analysis standpoint, this pair requires caution. Entry should follow confirmation of either a breakout or a reversion signal.
Final Thoughts
This week’s forex landscape demands precision, as macroeconomic data and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape sentiment. For traders focused on trade timing analysis, the recent Core PCE report and global developments offer rich ground for tactical positioning. Utilizing forex technical indicators for entry—especially MACD, RSI, and EMA200—can enhance entry point identification in forex, particularly across USD-paired assets and commodities like GOLD and SILVER. As volatility rises, applying a consistent forex trend entry strategy and relying on signal-based forex trading principles will be essential to capture reliable setups in this dynamic market. Visit: https://rs-fin.com/
